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tune
RULES

1. Predictions must be in before the race start time, anything after will not be accepted.
2. You must predict the top 10 finishing positions
3. You must also predict the driver who will get the fastest lap during the race.
4. 5 points will be awarded for predicting a driver in the right place or the driver with the fastest lap.
5. 3 points will be awarded for predicting a driver in the wrong place, but within 1 position of your guess.
6. 2 points will be awarded for predicting a driver in the wrong place, but within 2 positions of your guess.
7. 1 point will be awarded for predicting a driver in the wrong place, but within 3 positions of your guess.
6. You are allowed 1 consecutive carry over if you miss a race, but will score half points for that round.
7. Race disqualifications/altered finishing positions only count in our competition if they happen on the same day as a race.
8. I will keep the scores in a spreadsheet; which can be requested from me at any time.

Good luck guys and remember that it's not over until it's over, so please keep playing even if you miss a couple of races - fighting for 2md, 3rd, 4th, etc. can still be pretty exciting if there are a couple of you in with a shout comes seasons end!

All newcomers are welcome - posting of predictions takes place in this topic before each race. Please feel free to enter at any point in the season, you don't have to be in at the start to take part.
skr
Can't wait for the season to start!
Neotax
QUOTE(skr @ Feb 20 2010, 04:08 AM) *
Can't wait for the season to start!



+1 thumbs_up.gif
Dr. Strangelove
+1 I need to regain my title! smile.gif
Lancer007
I need to finish this time and take down dr s
clarkma5
After finally watching a season all the way through last year, I'd like to give this a shot this year! Unfortunately I'm gonna be out of town for Bahrain so I think I'm gonna try my initial predictions before I see the qualifying results, which I'm sure will put me at a terrible disadvantage for the first race...oh well, it's a long season.
Bjorn
I would love to, but without cable I'm at the mercy of torrents, and I don't want to spoil the highly entertaining qualifying session by looking at the results online, so I think I'm going to sit this one out.

I also have resigned myself to the fact that skr seems to have some sort of F1 time machine that lets him see results days beforehand. Someone call Jean Claude.

clarkma5
Yeah, I too have to rely on torrents...most grand prix weekends last year, though, I was able to watch the qualifying before the race started, even while having to wait for the sessions to be uploaded and then wait to download and then watch them...so I'll give it a shot.
clarkma5
Just checked to see the point scoring system because I was gonna get started on predicting bahrain...and I can't believe it's just "3 points for getting it right, 1 point for getting a name in the top 10". Seems kinda silly that...if you predict someone will be first, you'll get 3 points if they do win but you get 1 point whether they finish second or tenth. That really fails to reward people for being as close as possible.

How about working out a different scoring system that has a more precise grasp on how accurate people are? Something like "5 points for getting it right, 3 points for getting within 1 place, 2 points for getting within 2 places, 1 point for getting within 3 places" for example.

...or maybe something even more advanced than that; you could even base it on the actual championship points (for getting any one place right, you get the number of points that that position is worth...guess first place correctly, get 25 points, guess second place correctly, get 18 points, etc.) Then, to handle partial points, you could do it like so:

Points of Position Guesed - (Absolute difference of (Points of Position Guessed - Points of Actual Position))

If you guess high (say, that Barrichello will get 4th and he gets 7th), then you get the points of their actual grid position...if you guess low (you guess 7th and he gets 4th), you'll get something else (actually in that case, you'd get zero, but anyway). At no point would negative points count (though that would be interesting). Anyway, I think there's a better way to handle partial points than that with that idea but I haven't thought of it yet.

Regardless of the specific system, in general it just doesn't seem right that someone could get a point for being off by almost half the grid...especially when you add it up and that helps boost that person over someone else who's been much closer throughout the season. Since it's all spreadsheet work, it can all be automated so it wouldn't be too much work to keep track of a more complicated scoring system.
skr
I'm not necessarily opposed to the change, but here's my 2 cents.

I liked the points system we had last season because the idea was to be rewarded for being accurate with 8 positions, which is really difficult in itself. 3 points for every position guessed correctly.. Now that fuel loads don't necessarily come into play, and tires used in qualifying are required to be used at the race start, it makes it harder(or easier) to predict 8 places. Besides, last season it was relatively easy to predict top 3, and with this system, it made it harder for people to surge into the lead(mostly because of published fuel loads). It was quite a close battle, and the winner wasn't decided until the end of the very last race.

Unless tune can handle it, I wouldn't make things that much more complicated for him since he's taking time out of his busy schedule to organize this every week(thanks tune!).

Besides, it's about a week before the season opener.. not sure if we can come with a conclusion by then.
clarkma5
Well once we have people's predictions and have the actual grid positions, we can score it later...I would say that we have until the second grand prix to sort out a scoring system, not the first, but that's just my thought...
Dr. Strangelove
Eh no, lets do it now. Otherwise we'll be arguing over it the whole time.
clarkma5
Well I'm definitely all for that.

And though I liked the sound of tying the points you score in the competition to the FIA points system, I think after more thought that that's not gonna work...seems dumb to give 1 point for someone getting 10th place spot on but also give 1 point for someone saying something like "Sutil will be second" and he was 8th.

But back to my first idea (the simpler, easier to implement idea): 5 points for being right on, 3 for being off one place, 2 for being off two places, 1 for being off three places, 0 points for being off more than that. Easy to implement in spreadsheet form, gives you a nice bonus for being right on and tapers off as you get less accurate. Another thing I like about it is that if you guess someone for tenth and they wind up eleventh, you don't get screwed out of points. The actual point breakup can be discussed further of course but that's my concept.
skr
We should do a poll then?

I'm really put off by the complexity of this scoring system, but it sounds like it can be easily managed..

Personally, I think both scoring systems present the same results, just one is more complex than the other.

I'm fine with either one nonetheless.
clarkma5
skr, an example:

Actual finishing grid:
1st Hamilton
2nd Alonso
3rd Button
4th Massa
5th Kubica
6th di Grassi
7th Petrov
8th Glock
9th Webber
10th Vettel

Person A's guess:
1st Alonso - 1
2nd Hamilton - 1
3rd Massa - 1
4th Button- 1
5th di Grassi - 1
6th Kubica - 1
7th Glock - 1
8th Petrov- 1
9th Vettel - 1
10th Webber 1

Average off of grid = 1 position

Person B's guess:

1st Vettel - 9
2nd Webber - 7
3rd di Grassi - 3
4th Glock - 4
5th Petrov - 2
6th Kubica - 1
7th Alonso - 5
8th Massa - 4
9th Button - 6
10th Hamilton 9

Average off of grid = 5 positions

Person A is off by only 1 grid position on average while person B is off by a whopping 5 grid positions on average (gotta admit, that's pretty bad with my fictional 10 person grid)

Under the current points system both person A and person B get the same 10 out of 30 points possible. Under my proposed system, person A gets 36 out of 50 points, or 72% of maximum, and person B gets only 6 out of 50 points, or 12% of maximum.

So, in comparison, person B gets 100% of person As points under the old system but only 16.7% of person As points under the new systemto me that seems a lot more fair considering that person A was so much more right. Its a bit of an extreme example but I hope it demonstrates what I consider to be inherently wrong with the current points system.
skr
I understand what "flaws" this fixes. To me it didn't feel very flawed though after going through a season with that system. Your system will eliminate players from getting point surges, and if we're doing top 10 this season instead of top 8, your system would appear to make much more sense.
Dr. Strangelove
I like the within 3 places system a lot. Wasn't a fan of how we did it last year.
clarkma5
Just spent a few minutes developing a spreadsheet that'll calc all this out automatically...playing around with some reasonable guesses for finishing order and I think within three places is going to make points tough to get in a 24 place grid, maybe a 6,4,3,2,1 system for spot on, 1 away, 2 away, 3 away, and 4 away respectively. All details though. This shouldn't be too hard to agree on and implement before bahrain is over.
Dr. Strangelove
It's not a big deal if points are hard to get. maybe even better because then a zero won't be that crippling, and it will keep people in the game.
skr
I'm for it.. I'd like to see how things turn out.. I still like the fastest lap bonus though.
clarkma5
A point for fastest lap guess sounds pretty cool to me too, and I'm OK with precision being paramount in terms of getting points I suppose, I was just trying to be upfront about the challenge. I have no idea how easy or hard it was to get points in the old competition because I never followed it.

...also congrats on your thousandth post skr!
bobo27
Why don't we just adopt the FIA scoring system? I just don't like the whole getting points for having a driver finish close to what you predicted, however the 3 places idea seems somewhat ok.

25 18 15 12 10 8 6 4 2 1

and then a 20 for getting the fastest lap....
clarkma5
bobo, does that mean that you wouldn't get any points unless you got it exactly right? If not, how would you deal with partial points for being off by a place or two?

If there were no partial points, it doesn't seem very fair to me that someone could guess the bottom five places of the grid spot on, be really close for 1st through 5th, and still be beaten by someone who only guessed the winner but was completely out to lunch otherwise. If there were partial points, the issue becomes...how do you do that? That was the problem I was having with my idea when I was trying to develop this. You might end up with someone being 5 places off of first and getting more points than someone gets for guessing 9th correctly. That doesn't really reward accuracy at all.
bobo27
I'm a bit indifferent on partial points, u did not guess the right place, no points, just the way I see it. If you guess 1st that's 25 points! If you guess 8th u get 4pts. I do see your argument about someone only getting 1st place and 25pts and another person getting the last three so only 9pts, and because of that I have to admit my system is not entirely fair and I am not all too crazy about everyone on here agreeing to it... It's imperfect for sure, I just like it because it reflects the F1 scoring system... And yes the Fastest Lap guess should be awarded with similar points as the winner of the race.
But either way, again I'm not crazy about you guys accepting this scoring system, just threw it out there, maybe we can vary it somehow with the inclusion with partial points.
I guess then the only thing I want is the points to reflect the F1 scoring, and like I said with or without partial points, its all good!
clarkma5
I think tying the F1 competition's points to the FIA's point system sounds great, but it falls apart when you realize that a scoring system should direct the competition the way you want it to go. Of course, in actual racing, more points for first and then less for each subsequent position makes perfect sense, you want to push everyone toward trying to win/finish as high as they can. That's what racing's all about.

For the sake of the DS F1 Competition, the goal is to have people make guesses beforehand that are as accurate as possible...so the scoring system should really tie into how close you get to reality, not how high up the grid your accuracy is...it's a different "game design", so to speak, so the scoring should be different as well. Though I think the idea that guessing the higher positions is "more important" and weighting the scoring as such can certainly be valid (but then I also think that guessing the podium is easier than guessing 7th through 10th, so why make the largest number of points the easiest points as well?)

And in terms of fastest lap guessing, I don't think it makes a lot of sense to put a huge points benefit on that, for precisely the same reason that you're arguing we should tie the DS competition's points to F1's points...in F1, you don't actually get anything except a pat on the back for fastest lap, so why give someone a bonus equivalent to winning the race for guessing who gets fastest lap? That's overkill.
clarkma5
Alright well Tune still needs to confirm what the points system will be but I'm gonna go ahead and be the first to put in my guess since I'm not going to be able to watch practice or qualifying until after the grand prix is over.

Bahrain guesses:

1. Alonso
2. Hamilton
3. De La Rosa
4. Massa
5. Schumacher
6. Button
7. Vettel
8. Rosberg
9. Sutil
10. Kubica

Fastest Lap: Hamilton
tune
Okay, so I am happy with Clark's points system and quite excited by it. No-one else seems to have any serious objections, so we will proceed as planned. I'll update the OP in a second to confirm everything, including the correct Fastest Lap being worth 5 points, based on it being very difficult to predict last year (9 correct guesses from 100+ attempts).
bobo27
all good!
Dr. Strangelove
Vettel
alonso
massa
Hamilton
Schumacher
rosberg
webber
button
kubica
kobayashi

fl vettel
Lancer007
1. Alonso
2. Vettel
3. Rosberg
4. Weber
5. Schumacher
6. Massa
7. Hamilton
8. Button
9. Barrichello
10. Kubica

FL - Alonso
tune
Massa
Vettel
Alonso
Rosberg
Hamilton
Schumacher
Webber
Button
Sutil
De La Rosa

FL - Massa
bobo27
1. F. Massa
2. F. Alonso
3. S. Vettel
4. N. Rosberg
5. L. Hamilton
6. M. Schumacher
7. J. Button
8. R. Kubica
9. M. Webber
10. A. Sutil

FL: S. Vettel
Marien
1. Alonso
2. Vettel
3. Massa
4. Rosberg
5. Webber
6. Hamilton
7. Schumacher
8. Barrichello
9. Button
10. Sutil

FL: Alonso
skr
1. Alonso
2. Massa
3. Vettel
4. Rosberg
5. Schumacher
6. Hamilton
7. Button
8. Sutil
9. Kubica
10. Barrichello

FL: Vettel
clarkma5
Hey! Hopefully nobody minds if I update my predictions, much to my surprise I was able to watch qualifying before the race started!

1. Massa
2. Alonso
3. Vettel
4. Rosberg
5. Hamilton
6. Schumacher
7. Barrichello
8. Webber
9. Button
10. Kubica

FL - Alonso
tune
clarkma5.....................35
skr..............................32
bobo27........................30
Marien.........................29
Lancer007....................26
Dr. Strangelove............24
Tune............................24

Well, you might not think it looking at the scoreboard, but I like the new scoring system and I assume Clark does too!

Wasn't very impressed with the race - I know it's not the greatest track for action, but still I think the new regs could mean the season won't be as exciting as initially thought.
skr
Damn you clarkma5. I shouldn't have suggested the Fastest Lap bonus! hahaha smile.gif
clarkma5
Sweet! I totally didn't expect that, haha, but I got lucky with a lot of my midfield guesses. Beginner's luck. tongue.gif

The race wasn't great, it was interesting to see the reliability issues crop up, that seems kinda new after the last couple seasons, but mostly a procession...snore. Only interesting because it's the truest insight yet we have to the form going into the rest of the season.
moe
I'm going to go ahead and give this a shot.

1. Vettel
2. Alonso
3. Button
4. Webber
5. Massa
6. Rosberg
7. Schumacher
8. Hamilton
9. Kubica
10. Sutil

FL - Vettel
Neotax
1. Alonso
2. Vettel
3. Button
4. Webber
5. Massa
6. Schumacher
7. Hamilton
8. Barrichello
9. Kubica
10. Sutil

FL Alonso
tune
1. Vettel
2. Alonso
3. Webber
4. Massa
5. Rosberg
6. Button
7. Schumacher
8. Hamilton
9. Kubica
10. Liuzzi

FL Vettel
skr
1. Vettel
2. Alonso
3. Webber
4. Massa
5. Button
6. Rosberg
7. Hamilton
8. Schumacher
9. Kubica
10. Sutil

FL: Vettel
bobo27
1 S. Vettel
2 M. Webber
3 F. Alonso
4 J. Button
5 N. Rosberg
6 F. Massa
7 A. Sutil
8 R. Kubica
9 M. Schumacher
10 L. Hamilton

FL: Vettel
Lancer007
1. Alonso
2. Vettel
3. Webber
4. Schumacher
5. Button
6. Massa
7. Rosberg
8. Hamilton
9. Barrichello
10. Kubica

FL - Vettel
Dr. Strangelove
1. Vettel
2. Alonso
3. Webber
4. Massa
5. Button
6. Rosberg
7. Schumacher
8. Hamilton
9. Barrichello
10. Kubica

FL - Vettel
Marien
1.Vettel
2.Webber
3.Alonso
4.Webber
5.Massa
6.Rosberg
7.Schumacher
8.Hamilton
9.Sutil
10.Kubica

FL - Vettel
clarkma5
Marien you guessed Webber twice...2nd and 4th.
clarkma5
Alright I guess it's time for me to put in my guess.

1. Vettel
2. Webber
3. Alonso
4. Button
5. Rosberg
6. Schumacher
7. Massa
8. Sutil
9. Kubica
10. Hamilton

FL - Webber
Pez
1. Vettel
2. Alonso
3. Button
4. Massa
5. Webber
6. Rosberg
7. Kubica
8. Schumacher
9. Hamilton
10. Sutil

FL. Vettel
moe
I missed the race because I was in class, but I just checked out the results. Everyone is so far wide of the mark, it's actually really funny. I'm pretty happy about the result though biggrin.gif
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